{"title":"The x402 Arbitrum rail, measured from the declared payTo addresses (2026-09-25 remeasure)","what":"Independent 30-day measurement of USDC inflow to every EVM payTo address published in the live x402 discovery docs of the services in the canonical x402 directory (x402-list.com) that still declare eip155:42161 (Arbitrum One) in their live docs — on BOTH Arbitrum One and Base. Replaces the 09-11 anchor in place; the 09-11 numbers (window 08-12..09-11) are preserved in superseded_0911_anchor. Same declared-payTo method as /solana-rail and /rails: a lower bound — rotated-away payTo is missed, v2 docs may omit payTo by design.","generated_at":"2026-09-26T01:00:16Z","window":"30 days: 2026-08-26T07:56:47Z -> 2026-09-25T07:56:47Z (Arbitrum One; head block 508700651, start block 463700650; completed clean at the 09-25 07:5xZ pull, carried into the 09-25 remeasure). Base control column: 2026-08-26T16:45:33Z -> 2026-09-25T16:45:33Z (the base rail measurement of the same cycle — window edges differ by ~9h, documented in /rails).","sources":{"directory":"x402-list.com/api/v1/services (810 services, stageA pull as_of 2026-09-25T07:50:21Z — the same stageA checkpoint as /rails and /solana-rail)","discovery_docs":"live GET /.well-known/x402 for all 810 services (551 parseable, 259 offline/degraded), 2026-09-25 07:50:21Z; 5 services still declare eip155:42161 in the live doc","arbitrum_chain":"Arbitrum One (chain 42161) native Circle USDC 0xaf88d065e77c8cc2239327c5edb3a432268e5831 — USDC Transfer logs (topic to = declared payTo) over the 30-day range (head 508700651, start 463700650), 0 RPC errors; completed clean at the 2026-09-25 07:56Z pull (carried from the run-106 checkpoint)","base_chain":"Base (chain 8453) USDC 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913 — base.blockscout.com API v2 token-transfers, window 2026-08-26T16:45:33Z..2026-09-25T16:45:33Z (the /rails base rail measurement)"},"method":["1. stageA (2026-09-25T07:50:21Z): pull the full directory (810 rows) and GET the live .well-known/x402 of every service (551 parseable); parse declared networks + every payTo across all observed doc shapes.","2. 5 services still declare eip155:42161 in the live doc; their docs publish 5 distinct EVM payTo addresses. All 5 are ALSO base-declared (cross-checked against the base rail population).","3. Per address: count 30-day USDC Transfer inflows on Arbitrum One over the 30-day range (0 RPC errors, 0 incomplete rows).","4. BASE CONTROL: the same 5 addresses on Base over the base rail window, via Blockscout API v2 token-transfers.","5. CAVEATS unchanged: (a) addresses are the ones CURRENTLY published — a wallet rotated away in the last 30 days is missed (lower bound); (b) docs that omit payTo (facilitator-held) are unmeasurable from the doc; (c) 259 of 810 docs were offline/degraded, so the population is a floor; (d) native USDC only."],"headline":{"directory_pull_as_of":"2026-09-25T07:50:21Z","declared_in_directory":810,"live_docs_reachable":551,"still_declare_arbitrum_in_live_docs":5,"distinct_evm_payto_addresses_published":5,"all_addresses_also_base_declared":true,"arbitrum":{"tx_30d":6,"usdc_inflow_30d":21.746412,"addresses_with_any_activity":2,"active_addresses":"0x25a8b697da5c0baf698fd6bd9701b5e825214145 (whaletape): 5 tx / $21.7454 / 5 senders; 0xdd350976b8cffc65938c0464d39a2c78be079bd0 (sean-claude-van-damme-s-general-store): 1 tx / $0.001 / 1 sender"},"base_control":{"tx_30d":469,"usdc_inflow_30d":1170.187706,"addresses_with_activity":4,"top_wallet":"0xdd350976b8cffc65938c0464d39a2c78be079bd0 (sean-claude-van-damme-s-general-store): 337 tx / $1148.823706 / 22 senders"},"split_note":"21.75 USDC landed on Arbitrum vs 1170.19 on Base for the SAME 5 wallets — 1.8% of this window's settlement volume went on-chain on the declared rail."},"per_address":[{"address":"0x25a8b697da5c0baf698fd6bd9701b5e825214145","published_by":["whaletape"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":5,"usdc":21.745412,"distinct_senders":5},"base_30d":{"tx":123,"usdc":20.96,"distinct_senders":14},"also_base_declared":true},{"address":"0xa6c1c305d7e11ae7eeb80ddb179e8a51a0a2e32a","published_by":["marz-greta-lock-network-ai-text-human-likeness-benchmark"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0},"base_30d":{"tx":7,"usdc":0.4,"distinct_senders":2},"also_base_declared":true},{"address":"0xad586c246b75982ec16c6a5efe4488222965408f","published_by":["x402-extract-api"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0},"base_30d":{"tx":2,"usdc":0.004,"distinct_senders":1},"also_base_declared":true},{"address":"0xdd350976b8cffc65938c0464d39a2c78be079bd0","published_by":["sean-claude-van-damme-s-general-store"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":1,"usdc":0.001,"distinct_senders":1},"base_30d":{"tx":337,"usdc":1148.823706,"distinct_senders":22},"also_base_declared":true},{"address":"0xf8a376ebf123d7252cd7b66bcd77a727a4def22f","published_by":["saylor-innovations-watchdog-token-intelligence"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0},"base_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0},"also_base_declared":true}],"superseded_0911_anchor":{"note":"the 09-11 anchor, superseded in place by the 09-25 remeasure; figures are for the 08-12..09-11 window only (directory pull 685 services, 40 declaring).","title":"The x402 Arbitrum rail, measured from the declared payTo addresses (2026-09-11)","generated_at":"2026-09-11T05:45:00Z","window":"30 days: 2026-08-12 to 2026-09-11","headline":{"declared_in_directory":40,"live_docs_reachable":28,"still_declare_arbitrum_in_live_docs":6,"of_those_publish_no_wallet_in_doc":3,"distinct_evm_payto_addresses_published":6,"arbitrum":{"tx_30d":187,"usdc_inflow_30d":11.2784,"addresses_with_any_activity":1,"active_address":"0xabf4fabd7c416fb67202e5f9002389fc75e2a9d0 (agent402-tools): 187 tx / $11.2784 / 4 distinct senders — and its live doc no longer declares Arbitrum"},"arbitrum_wallets_mapped_to_arbitrum_in_live_docs":{"addresses":["0xf8a376ebf123d7252cd7b66bcd77a727a4def22f","0xad586c246b75982ec16c6a5efe4488222965408f","0xdd350976b8cffc65938c0464d39a2c78be079bd0"],"tx_30d":0,"usdc_inflow_30d":0},"base_control":{"tx_30d":5992,"usdc_inflow_30d":1325.1397,"addresses_with_activity":3,"top_wallet":"0xdd350976b8cffc65938c0464d39a2c78be079bd0 (sean-claude-van-damme-s-general-store): 185 tx / $1212.41 / 16 distinct senders"}},"cascade":"40 declare Arbitrum in the directory -> 28 live docs reachable (12 offline/degraded) -> 6 still declare eip155:42161 in the live doc -> 3 of those 6 publish no wallet in the doc (agentbit mode=facilitator; edge-agents-ai and onchainpulse omit it) -> 6 distinct EVM payTo addresses published across the 28 readable docs -> 1 of the 6 received any USDC on Arbitrum in 30 days: 187 tx / $11.28, all from the agent402-tools wallet, whose live doc no longer declares Arbitrum; the 3 wallets the live docs actually map to Arbitrum received $0 -> the same 6 wallets received 5992 tx / $1325.14 on Base in the same 30 days.","read":"The directory's '0 measured' for Arbitrum is mostly right, in the most literal sense: the wallets these services publish are nearly silent on the chain. $11.28 of $1,336 (0.85%) of the 30-day settlement to the six wallets landed on Arbitrum — and it all came from one wallet whose own live doc no longer even declares Arbitrum. The three wallets the live docs DO map to Arbitrum moved exactly $0. Meanwhile the same six wallets moved 5,992 tx / $1,325.14 on Base, where the services actually settle. And per Bitquery's August 2026 x402 audit (bitquery.io/investigations/x402-ai-agent-payments-audit), 97.5% of measured Arbitrum x402 volume sits inside ONE CCTP bridge contract (CctpExtension — Circle's cross-chain transfer protocol, 34,577 payers) — settlement that never touches a service's declared wallet.","triangulation":{"directory_own_measurement":"0 measured (x402-list assessment, facilitator-indexed)","our_declared_wallet_floor_arbitrum":"187 tx / $11.28 / 30d to the 6 published wallets (all from 1 wallet no longer declared for Arbitrum live); $0 to the 3 wallets the live docs map to Arbitrum","our_declared_wallet_floor_base_control":"5992 tx / $1325.14 / 30d to the same 6 wallets","bitquery_aug_2026":"Arbitrum x402 volume concentrated in ONE bridge contract (CctpExtension): 97.5% of the chain's measured x402 volume, 34,577 payers, median $749, one payment $10M — settlement that never touches a service's declared wallet (source: bitquery.io/investigations/x402-ai-agent-payments-audit, verified 2026-09-06)"},"addresses":[{"address":"0x0a801e236fbc1a95a35ab8e946837320ddce9d69","declared_by":["verdoc"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0},"base_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0}},{"address":"0xabf4fabd7c416fb67202e5f9002389fc75e2a9d0","declared_by":["agent402-tools"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":187,"usdc":11.2784,"distinct_senders":4},"base_30d":{"tx":5786,"usdc":112.561,"distinct_senders":128}},{"address":"0xad586c246b75982ec16c6a5efe4488222965408f","declared_by":["x402-extract-api"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0},"base_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0}},{"address":"0xd5f8481d8f25d3966d2010dbf9b47ffbdf745a9e","declared_by":["asterpay"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0},"base_30d":{"tx":21,"usdc":0.166,"distinct_senders":9}},{"address":"0xdd350976b8cffc65938c0464d39a2c78be079bd0","declared_by":["sean-claude-van-damme-s-general-store"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0},"base_30d":{"tx":185,"usdc":1212.4127,"distinct_senders":16}},{"address":"0xf8a376ebf123d7252cd7b66bcd77a727a4def22f","declared_by":["saylor-innovations-watchdog-token-intelligence"],"arbitrum_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0},"base_30d":{"tx":0,"usdc":0,"distinct_senders":0}}],"services":[{"slug":"agentbit","base_url":"https://agentbit.app","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":true,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":true,"doc_shape":"other","payto_published":[]},{"slug":"openzoo","base_url":"https://api.openzoo.fun","dir_status":"offline","live_doc_reachable":false,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":null,"payto_published":[]},{"slug":"cloudmaxi0x","base_url":"https://cloudmaxi0x.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":false,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":null,"payto_published":[]},{"slug":"hostdefi-token-risk-api","base_url":"https://hostdefi.com/api","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":false,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":null,"payto_published":[]},{"slug":"warppay402-mcp-gateway","base_url":"https://api.warppay402.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":false,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":null,"payto_published":[]},{"slug":"saylor-innovations-watchdog-token-intelligence","base_url":"https://saylorinnovations.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":false,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":true,"doc_shape":null,"payto_published":["0xf8a376ebf123d7252cd7b66bcd77a727a4def22f"]},{"slug":"eve-s-wire","base_url":"https://www.watchevelive.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":false,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":null,"payto_published":[]},{"slug":"edge-agents-ai","base_url":"https://pay.edge-agents.ai","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":true,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":true,"doc_shape":"v1-res","payto_published":[]},{"slug":"x402tap","base_url":"https://x402tap.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":false,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":null,"payto_published":[]},{"slug":"uhadev-pdf-data-inspection-api","base_url":"https://x402.uhadev.com","dir_status":"degraded","live_doc_reachable":false,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":null,"payto_published":[]},{"slug":"x402-extract-api","base_url":"https://api.jomofagan.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":true,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":true,"doc_shape":"v2","payto_published":["0xad586c246b75982ec16c6a5efe4488222965408f"]},{"slug":"verdoc","base_url":"https://verdoc.dev","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":true,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":"v2","payto_published":["0x0a801e236fbc1a95a35ab8e946837320ddce9d69"]},{"slug":"sean-claude-van-damme-s-general-store","base_url":"https://scvd.store","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":true,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":true,"doc_shape":"v2","payto_published":["0xdd350976b8cffc65938c0464d39a2c78be079bd0"]},{"slug":"email-auth-check-spf-dmarc-dkim","base_url":"https://email-auth.use.x402atlas.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":true,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":"v1-res","payto_published":[]},{"slug":"url-unwrap-redirect-tracer","base_url":"https://unwrap.use.x402atlas.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":true,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":"v1-res","payto_published":[]},{"slug":"gdelt-news-search-and-timeline","base_url":"https://gdelt.use.x402atlas.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":true,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":"v1-res","payto_published":[]},{"slug":"hyperliquid-prediction-markets-data-x402-atlas","base_url":"https://hyperliquid-predict.use.x402atlas.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":false,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":null,"payto_published":[]},{"slug":"wikipedia-article-summary-mrtoqzsc-0","base_url":"https://wiki.use.x402atlas.com","dir_status":"online","live_doc_reachable":true,"live_doc_declares_arbitrum":false,"doc_shape":"v1-res","payto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BY 4.0","cite_as":"Pennyforge SendCheck, api.pennyforge.org/arbitrum-rail (2026-09-25 remeasure; 09-11 anchor preserved in superseded_0911_anchor)"}